I've added a couple of pics of the 5th street dike to this thread to give an idea where the water level is at in relation as of right now. IMO still quite a ways to go, especially when you consider that the whole bowl that now is Dinsdale Park would have to fill up first. Folks might have their own guesses, but to me it looks like almost a couple metres of dike on top of the current water level. I'm sure it doesn't change how un-nerving it is to know that the river is rising that close to your home, but to me it looks like there's a lot of dike left still.

Also for anyone curious on how things could play out over the next couple weeks, the Weather Network is running a very useful animation that shows the flow of the main Assiniboine tributaries and how water will eventually flow into this area.

we came into town on Friday a.m. via grand valley road and there was a bit of water running over the road going into the park. Properties on the southwest side of the road in the lowest places were sandbagged. Water wasn't that far away.After the snow and more run- off I wonder how much higher it got.

I was wondering where your photos were taken, the river seems sort of near the top of the dike in your pictures.

Do you mean photo #1 ? I was kind of wondering where it was taken as well.

The photo I was looking at is coming up as #5 in the selections, I imagine the number changes as new Photos are added, I just checked and it is reported that it is 4 miles upstream from 18th. Now it leaves me wondering where the water would flow if it goes over at this point  
 
It is sort of interesting to note that the water seems to have receded some at this location.  
 
Edited by don brown, 2011-04-17 13:20:38

Is taken at the line between the rms of cornwallis and whitehead. It will flow towards Turtle Crossing and ??????????????????

Yesterday I noticed from the aerial photos that the ice was still in the river in most places, has that changed, since the live photos show no ice.

It will flow towards Turtle Crossing and ??????????????????  
 
Since I'm not sure where this dike is in the photo, I'm assuming that it is only providing protection along the river out along grand valley and if it gets over it will not be a concern to the city but only rural property.

The picture of the dike is on the North side of the river, IF it goes over it will flood all the way to 18th street, just like other times when it has gone over. Usually takes a lot of dike out when it goes!

braid said "Do you mean photo #1 ? I was kind of wondering where it was taken as well. "

The pics showing as 1 and 2 right now (with the river, dike and then house in the background) were taken a little before noon from the 1st street bridge facing West..

thanks Adam. Here's hoping all the dikes hold !  
River is due to crest ....end of the month ? ?

braid said "thanks Adam. Here's hoping all the dikes hold !   River is due to crest ....end of the month ? ? "

seen on channel 31 today (MTS) that the river is due to crest between the 22nd and 28th of April

believe they think all the water from sask. and all the snow that is up north is going to be here that soon.Think the red is to crest may 3 so that should back the water up in brandon.

BarneyRemple said "believe they think all the water from sask. and all the snow that is up north is going to be here that soon.Think the red is to crest may 3 so that should back the water up in brandon. "

22nd to 28th is what I'd heard for the 1st peak, but that there could also be a second peak as much as two weeks later after the water from Qu'Appelle/Sask makes its way here...

From what I've seen the province has been hesitant in making those kinds of forecasts in its daily updates.. only saying today that "The forecasted peak for the Assiniboine River at St-Lazare has increased due to higher flows from the Qu’Appelle River, snow in Saskatchewan and precipitation that has fallen and is forecasted for the Souris River basin." http://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?archive=&item=11268

In the report on the City site, they note that a revised Assiniboine forecast is being prepared for tomorrow:
http://www.brandon.ca/main.nsf/Pages+By+ID/1511?opendocument&ID=9977

BarneyRemple said "believe they think all the water from sask. and all the snow that is up north is going to be here that soon.Think the red is to crest may 3 so that should back the water up in brandon. "

thought the Red and Assiniboine were now expected to crest at the same time??? That's what they were saying yesterday. Did that change over the last 24 hours?

culinary2011 said "    BarneyRemple said "believe they think all the water from sask. and all the snow that is up north is going to be here that soon.Think the red is to crest may 3 so that should back the water up in brandon. " thought the Red and Assiniboine were now expected to crest at the same time??? That's what they were saying yesterday. Did that change over the last 24 hours? "

But you are watching WInnipeg news and they are talking about water levels in Winnipeg. Every area will have different crest dates.

saying nothing as an ice jam is to back the assiniboine up 3ft and the may 2 crest on the red is off because of the snow and rain down south.Same with the souris.All I can see by watching the weather channel ctv in sask and win is we are in for some very hard times.

I am posting some pics from our cottage in the Qu'appelle valley (sask) to give you an idea what it's like there. This was completely unexpected, unlike here where they've been telling us it might flood since this fall and they are telling us who may flood and sandbagging, etc. We knew it would be high this spring, but had no warnings or reason  
to think we should sandbag or protect property near the lake.  
 
By the time we knew how high it was there was nothing we could do to prevent the water coming in the house, it was already at the foundation and so we could just move furniture etc. inside the house to try to keep it above the water line.  
 
Looking down into the Qu'Appelle valley from the hills, you cannot even see where the river is overflowing its banks - because now it's just like one big lake where there used to be a winding river.  
 
 
 
 
 

Very scary is all I can say and I pray that the river doesn't flood over the 5th street north dike, especially because I live just on the otherside of it, not on 5th street though but very very close! );

Headed down to the river last night. Wow there is still lots of ice. I am glad the melt is slow here.  
 
I see the CBC today has pictures of Brandons new "water park"  
 

C~L~R said "Very scary is all I can say and I pray that the river doesn't flood over the 5th street north dike, especially because I live just on the otherside of it, not on 5th street though but very very close! ); "

Exactly i live close to it too and In a basement apartment. So I am really hoping it doesnt flood over the 5th street dyke!

Saw a picture of the soccer park [ east of 1st. street] on channel 31 last night. Thanks to whoever it was for the heads up on channel 31 and to Adam & all the people posting on here. Helps give a better understanding of "how much" and "Where".  
Unbelievable how wide spread the flooding is this year. Please keep pictures and commentary coming and stay dry !

of water that is on the way for here.Thank god that the temp. has went the wat it has to let some of the water leave as there is a lot of water to come yet as the bush still has a foot or more of snow in it.

That the Shellmouth dam is open and they can't get it closed. That doesn't make sense so I am sure there is more to it. Anyone else hear that?

it was shaking so bad they closed the road.

be a bad one if the Shellmouth let go. Goodbye St Lazare, Sioux Valley, parts of Brandon and whatever else was in the way.

the water in Lake of the Prairies is super low right now, supposed to leave lots of room for the water coming down from up north so that it can keep that back.  
 
Today's flood report is out and it doesn't say anything about it, so I think maybe it's just misinformation.

From today's flood report, a few Brandon-related pieces of information:  
---------------------------------------  
- The sandbag machine in Brandon has been requested by the Town of Hartney and the machine is being relocated there today. Hartney is sandbagging because to assist with flood protection at a nearby Hutterite colony.  
 
- Repairs have been completed on the CP rail line near Brandon  
 
- Flood watches have been issued for the Assiniboine River downstream of Russell to Portage la Prairie and Fisher River.  
 
- The Assiniboine River revised forecast predicts slightly higher flows from St-Lazare to Brandon. Today, forecasters are revising predicted inflows from the Souris River to assess impacts downstream of Brandon.

- Water levels in the Shellmouth Reservoir have increased 1.22 ft. since yesterday to 1,390.39 ft. The Shellmouth inflow is 6,560 cfs and outflow from the reservoir is 480 cfs.  
-----------------------------  
Read the full-length report at:  
http://news.gov.mb.ca/news/index.html?archive=&item=11273

The Shellmouth dam has 2 spillways, one can be opened and shut while the other cannot (it is always open).  
 
Once the water in Lake of the Prairies reaches a certain level, the water will continue to flow out of the second open spillway until the lake level drops.  
 
So if water from creeks and snow melt continues to flow into the lake faster than it can empty, water will continue to exit the lake via the second spillway. There is nothing that can be done to stop it. This is why the lake was dropped to such a low level this winter.

That explains a lot, and clearer than most of these flood bulletins!  
 
So, then of course it's open and they can't shut it - it's supposed to be. I wonder if it's now full enough to start flowing through that second one yet.