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Topic: Strong Potential For Severe Weather- SW Manitoba
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mrsj

6/9/2012 2:27:35 PM
Member since:
Jan 2009
Total posts:1052
Strong Potential For Severe Weather- SW Manitoba

According to storm chaser Reed Timmer "Warm front is closing in on the ND/Manitoba Border! Targeting Virden to Pipestone near warm front/cold front intersection for initiation around 4 pm CDT"  
They are travelling to the region to chase the potential storms.  
 
you can follow his twitter stream- https://twitter.com/#!/reedtimmerTVN  
 
Stay safe today!

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Adam

6/9/2012 2:34:59 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Tornadovideos.net

Just took a look and as of this posting going by their map they're on highway 21 between Deloraine and Hartney:  
http://live.tvnweather.com  
 
It doesn't necessarily mean that we will see any severe storms in Southwestern Manitoba (there's nothing on radar at this point in time that would effect us)... but these guys presumably don't drive that kind of distance without reason to believe that it might be worth their while.  
 
My usual weather source is saying that there is a "moderate risk" of severe storms later this afternoon/evening on SW Manitoba with the best bet area for storms to initiate being around Melita or Pilot Mound.... then moving Northeast.  
 
Officially by Environment Canada Brandon-Carberry-Treherne and all points South and West within Manitoba are currently under a severe thunderstorm watch:  
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/mb_e.html  
 
A reminder that a watch doesn't mean that something will for sure take place but if you have plans for later this afternoon or into the evening it would be a good idea to keep an eye on what Environment Canada and radar say. If you're in the very Southwest part of the province and you notice anything worth posting about, please keep us posted.

You can follow radar at http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MBX®ion=a3&lat=49.91999817&lon=-99.94999695&label=Brandon%2c%20Manitoba

Adam

6/9/2012 3:24:46 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Update

Just watching their video stream. They're currently stopped just West of Ninette on Hwy 23 and by the sound of things, a lot of the necessary dynamics are falling into place for storm development. I don't have a grasp on how often these guys get excited, but they're talking as if it will be something significant.  
 
Edit: Comment just made on Timmer's Facebook:  
" Environment looks very conducive for tornadoes (possibly strong) along the warm front. Storms should initiate shortly in ND and cross the border into Canada."  
 
 
 
Edited by Adam, 2012-06-09 15:38:41

Nelle

6/9/2012 3:43:48 PM
Member since:
Jun 2010
Total posts:1077
.

Makin me a bit nervous.

SlimJim

6/9/2012 4:12:41 PM
Member since:
Jan 2011
Total posts:24
Just Passed Belmont

and Baldor area , please take cover , when it starts to storm , we only have dark clouds here , no weather change other then major drop in temputaere

Dalmation_Girl

6/9/2012 4:15:49 PM
Member since:
Before Feb/07
Total posts:240
:)

Bring it on. I love a good thunderstorm!!!  
 
Cheers  

sammy

6/9/2012 4:20:35 PM
Member since:
Sep 2010
Total posts:5719
:)

i love a good thunderstorm too!! lots of lightning and loud thunder, even the power out(but only for a little bit lol)  
 
however, tornadoes make me a bit nervous haha. i dont have twitter so i hope someone keeps this thread updated with what they know to be accurate information.  
 
stay safe everyone!!

hermione

6/9/2012 4:20:40 PM
Member since:
Jul 2009
Total posts:2620
That's

  
Dalmation_Girl said "Bring it on. I love a good thunderstorm!!!  
 
Cheers  
"

good... how do you feel about tornados? cause that's what the storm chasers are trying to follow.

BigDaddy 2

6/9/2012 4:23:04 PM
Member since:
May 2010
Total posts:589
Just past them

in Medora about 45 mins ago. Man that looks like a lot of fun!

Adam

6/9/2012 4:25:23 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Update

Sounds like they expect storms to start firing up within the next hour. From a Brandon perspective, you'll be looking to see what if anything starts to the Southwest of us since thats the direction that anything we see would come from. For what its worth, Timmer just posted on his Facebook that he expects the severe thunderstorm watch will "Likely will be upgraded to a tornado watch as supercells materialize along the warm front here in the next hour. "  
 
All that said I can't repeat enough how important it is to note the difference between a watch and a warning. A watch just means that conditions are favourable for development but isn't saying that anything will happen, or that it will happen to any exact area.  
 
For anyone looking to get info straight from the horse's mouth, their video stream is only $2 but I'll do my best to update what I hear  
 
Edited by Adam, 2012-06-09 16:27:39

mrsj

6/9/2012 4:25:44 PM
Member since:
Jan 2009
Total posts:1052
...

  
sammy said "i love a good thunderstorm too!! lots of lightning and loud thunder, even the power out(but only for a little bit lol)  
 
however, tornadoes make me a bit nervous haha. i dont have twitter so i hope someone keeps this thread updated with what they know to be accurate information.  
 
stay safe everyone!! "

you don't need a twitter account to view his tweets.  
 
also updating live on his facebook account- https://www.facebook.com/ReedTimmerTVN#!/ReedTimmerTVN  
 
recent tweet-  
Reed Timmer?@reedtimmerTVN  
 
4+ EHIs are now in extreme southern Manitoba along the retreating warm front. Supercells are about to explode here.  
http://t.co/IY3fe6Ns <:image of map

Pita

6/9/2012 4:29:15 PM
Member since:
Jul 2009
Total posts:711
Hmmmmmmm

We just moved a bed from upstairs to the main floor....think we will keep it in the hallway in case we need to take cover here in Hartney...Just came in from outside and air is cool and really calm....feels really eerie outside.

NoCares

6/9/2012 4:29:59 PM
Member since:
Jan 2009
Total posts:2356
.

  
hermione said "
  
Dalmation_Girl said "Bring it on. I love a good thunderstorm!!!  
 
Cheers  
"

good... how do you feel about tornados? cause that's what the storm chasers are trying to follow. "

Tornadoes are scary, but interesting at the same time. I have a big fascination with tornadoes. Yes I know they do a TON of damage, and people's homes and lives can be at risk, but, it is still slightly exciting for those who are interested in the subject.  
 
I do hope, that if there is a tornado, those that are near it are safe!

Emy-Lou :)

6/9/2012 4:30:20 PM
Member since:
Mar 2010
Total posts:24
Seen this on Ustream TV

Here is a link to a dash cam with a couple of Prairie storm chasers near Baldur /Marapolis  
 
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/kid-showtime  
 
Should be an interesting night weather watchers!

hermione

6/9/2012 4:30:52 PM
Member since:
Jul 2009
Total posts:2620
Yes

they are neat to watch, but i hope they stay aware from populated areas.

Dalmation_Girl

6/9/2012 4:36:37 PM
Member since:
Before Feb/07
Total posts:240
:)

  
hermione said "
  
Dalmation_Girl said "Bring it on. I love a good thunderstorm!!!  
 
Cheers  
"

good... how do you feel about tornados? cause that's what the storm chasers are trying to follow. "

Tornadoes? They scare the crap out of me! LOL!! Hopefully they don't show up! Fingers crossed!!  
 
Cheers

mrsj

6/9/2012 4:38:59 PM
Member since:
Jan 2009
Total posts:1052
.

Chasers are by Crystal City.  
recent tweet-  
Reed Timmer?@reedtimmerTVN  
 
VERY strong low-level wind shear analyzed now in extreme southern Manitoba with 500+ effective helicities -> tornadoes  
http://t.co/c8sZqERM <image

sammy

6/9/2012 4:39:30 PM
Member since:
Sep 2010
Total posts:5719
:)

  
mrsj said "
  
sammy said "i love a good thunderstorm too!! lots of lightning and loud thunder, even the power out(but only for a little bit lol)  
 
however, tornadoes make me a bit nervous haha. i dont have twitter so i hope someone keeps this thread updated with what they know to be accurate information.  
 
stay safe everyone!! "

you don't need a twitter account to view his tweets.  
 
also updating live on his facebook account- https://www.facebook.com/ReedTimmerTVN#!/ReedTimmerTVN  
 
recent tweet-  
Reed Timmer?@reedtimmerTVN  
 
4+ EHIs are now in extreme southern Manitoba along the retreating warm front. Supercells are about to explode here.  
http://t.co/IY3fe6Ns <:image of map "

thanks mrsj!! i will check out those links!

Emy-Lou :)

6/9/2012 5:04:10 PM
Member since:
Mar 2010
Total posts:24
Mb crew in mix

Mb crew just tweeted they have caught up with Discovery Channel crew:  
 
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/kid-showtime  
 
Pilot Mound area.

Adam

6/9/2012 5:53:27 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
update

Radar still showing zip  
They stopped for a break, but hearing them talk they still expect things to develop... saying "the longer you wait, the more the instability builds." They're about to head east of Pilot Mound toward Morden, so quite a ways away from here. Not sure what that means for the expectation of something developing in other parts of the province but officially according to Environment Canada all of Southern MB including Brandon remains under a severe thunderstorm watch.

Is there anyone reading from Melita or Boissevain that can tell us what your sky looks like?

4Hmom

6/9/2012 6:07:18 PM
Member since:
May 2012
Total posts:3
Weather in Boissevain

Not much happening in Boissevain right now. Really humid and overcast with a bit of wind. Temperature is dropping noticeably. Keeping an eye in the sky!

April_Archambault

6/9/2012 6:09:40 PM
Member since:
Jun 2011
Total posts:2
I'm in Killarney

And the skies don't really look scary here, just a little clouded over and even some sun peaking through still.

Adam

6/9/2012 6:33:15 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Directional change

They've turned around and are heading back West. Apparently some sort of clouds starting to develop Northeast of Minot (something about an area between Dunseith and Bottineau).  
 
Edit: Facebook post just made by Timmer:  
Looks like storm initiation is getting close near the Boissevain, Manitoba area west and south. Cap still has not been broken but should pop anytime. Heading west toward these towers now. Once they break the cap storms will quickly become tornado-producing supercells.  
 
4HMom would it be possible to get a shot of what might be developing to the South or Southwest of you?  
 
 
 
 
 
Edited by Adam, 2012-06-09 18:40:03

ladyT

6/9/2012 6:35:26 PM
Member since:
Mar 2009
Total posts:40
boissevain..

Looks like storm initiation is getting close near the Boissevain, Manitoba area west and south. Cap still has not been broken but should pop anytime. Heading west toward these towers now. Once they break the cap storms will quickly become tornado-producing supercells. http://live.tvnweather.com/  
 
reed timmer(storm chaser) just posted this a min. ago on facebook

4Hmom

6/9/2012 6:54:18 PM
Member since:
May 2012
Total posts:3
Clouds Rolling In

Dark clouds starting to roll in from South West, but sun still peaking through once a while. Getting that calm before the storm feeling.

ladyT

6/9/2012 7:13:43 PM
Member since:
Mar 2009
Total posts:40
langdon

Storms have broken the cap northwest of Langdon, ND near the Canada Border. If this matures into a supercell will be heading toward Winnipeg in the next few hours. Stay tuned for updates. Streaming live video as we drive around in circles in southern Manitoba at http://live.tvnweather.com/

Adam

6/9/2012 7:15:01 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Watches

Good news 4Hmom and others in your area... Watches now ended for Virden-Souris and Melita-Boissevain-Turtle Mountain.  
 
Killarney-Pilot Mound-Manitou and Brandon-Carberry-Treherne still under one. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/mb_e.html  
TornadoVideos' focus now on a storm that has popped up near the border around highway 5... well clear of Brandon.

sharon kucher

6/9/2012 7:24:37 PM
Member since:
Aug 2009
Total posts:919
William Lake?

Any idea of the weather there Please?

4Hmom

6/9/2012 7:40:05 PM
Member since:
May 2012
Total posts:3
Lake William Weather

We live close to Lake William, and as of right now nothing is happening. It is very calm, and the sky is filled with dark clouds. Seems like the system is moving over top of us.

Adam

6/9/2012 8:15:00 PM
Member since:
Mar 2005
Total posts:11922
Watches

Still a severe thunderstorm watch for Brandon.  
The following is in effect for Killarney-Pilot Mound-Manitou:  
 
-----------------  
 
Tornado watch for  
Killarney - Pilot Mound - Manitou continued  
 
Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.  
 
Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.  
 
-------------------------  
 
TornadoVideo are trying to intercept what looks like a pretty significant a storm thats developed South of the border thats about to cross near Pembina South of Winnipeg.

 
 
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