Discussions

Like I've tried to be pretty consistent with since the day this became a pandemic, facts, science and reputable sources of info matter... perhaps now more than ever. Lots of room for disagreement, discussion and opinion on what measures are and perhaps aren't necessary or practical, but cherry-picking random non-scientists, non-doctors, viral Youtubers, Facebook disinfo spreaders, etc to support one's theories and biases doesn't fly on here no matter how much some folks try to portray stuff coming from that realm as a "side." I know that the odd person that buys into that stuff has found a place where they feel they've found "truth" in the disinfo, but it can be truly harmful to a community to seed narratives in this crisis that aren't grounded in fact... something I just can't have this site be party to. 

Thanks to so many of the posters that continue to engage in spirited, constructive, fact-respecting discussion on Covid topics!

Not clear what level of re-opening you're advocating for, but somewhere between where restrictions are right now and a full-on re-opening is a return to the level of contacts and hospitalizations that could have catastrophic consequences on the community (knowing that a fairly established percentage of contacts to Covid cases will become new cases, that a percentage of those new cases will result in hospitalizations, that a percentage of those hospitalizations will have serious outcomes).  
 
Provincially there are lower numbers over these last few days, which have to be encouraging on some level... but there have also been lower test numbers too so the jury is very much out. Suspect that right now we're in a bit of a holding pattern, crossing fingers that enough folks did the right thing over Christmas and will continue to do so for New Years. With virus incubation period of 14 days, it was 1-2 weeks after Thanksgiving that we really started to see the rise in cases in October into November. We'll have to wait and see what things look like here as we get closer to the January 8 date that current restrictions are in place to. By that point the powers that be will hopefully have an idea what Covid post-holidays looks like to be able to assess most appropriate balance of restrictions going forward and whether or not there's a case for changes (keeping expectations realistic in knowing that the virus hasn't disappeared and vaccine prevalence is extremely low for now).  

 
In all of this, there's the unknown of this new variant that it seems there's still quite a bit to learn about.  I think the OP was hoping to initiate a conversation on what that could ultimately necessitate for any change in restrictions, though I personally have a level of trust that powers that be are watching closely and will make the most appropriate decisions. 
 
Good news is it looks like we're going to start seeing more and more doses of the vaccines that give real hope of a light at the end of the tunnel in the coming months. Seems to be optimism around variants and existing vaccines, but I know that's a topic a lot of folks will be watching with a lot of interest in the days and weeks ahead. 

Getting into a sort of apples v oranges in comparing restrictions on travel and the high volume of contacts that take place amongst members of a community on any given day in shopping, socializing, attending events, etc during normal times. If this is about percentages, I think some folks vastly overestimate how much travel is going on relative to normal and how many contacts come about because of it. It was just in the news a week ago that Winnipeg airport saw a 93% drop in passengers over the holidays this year. Would it be optimal as far as potential virus spread to have that number be 100%? Absolutely… just as it would be optimal to have the number of people that have to shop indoors in person reduced by 100% (that isn’t going to happen, but it's at least reduced to shopping for necessities only). The lower they can get both of those numbers though, the less contacts, the less cases.  Some folks may have different ideas on travel when it comes to trying to hold back a new variant from getting in, if it isn't already here. 

As far as comments on believing/listening to government, I think part of the problem is that there’s a crowd of some folks who have impossible expectations of gov and health officials (either legit expectations, or using to support confirmation bias). As much as health officials will know 100,000x more than you or I about what needs to be done during this, no single decision-maker came into this with the perfect, tested playbook of how to extinguish the virus. Some have had those decision-makers on an impossible pedestal, overlooking that especially in early days there will have been some iterative thinking that will involve some mistakes, adjustments, monitoring what's working in other regions, etc. Even if there was a playbook I highly doubt it would’ve accounted for how many people have gone absolutely science-denying batty during this and put watching a ten minute YouTube video on the same level as ten years in school learning medicine, a wrinkle that only makes this harder and threatens to prolong and cost lives.  
 
At the other side of the coin the communication over these past 9+ months has been at-times spotty, which can have unintended consequences. Just one example, but data such as regional test positivity is generally not shared except in the really rare cases where it’s deemed to be of benefit to the wider virus response… even though for a lot of us it would be helpful to see it as an ongoing rolling number in order to understand more about the presence of the virus in Prairie Mountain and even Brandon. I understand that it’s not with ill intent and is part of a wider strategy to combat the virus, but for folks that are less naturally inclined to trust gov that sort of selective transparency isn’t always helpful.  
 
Be well. Stay at home as much as possible. Consider that while we might have opinions on aspects of this that effect us personally, you or I don’t necessarily have all of the tools to fully understand the virus and wider response to it and that there are folks in charge that are committed to steering us through this. There is no magical shortcut… if there was, with a generally business-friendly government I suspect they would’ve found it by now. Remind yourself daily that deployment of Health Canada-approved vaccines is underway and that that’s the ticket to the other side of this as we slowly start to see a more widespread inoculated population as we get further into 2021!