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Major winter storm expected in Manitoba on Monday

Major winter storm expected in Manitoba on Monday

Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Major winter storm expected in Manitoba on Monday
3/4/2017 at 6:01 PM

CBC's John Sauder and others have been on the potential for this for a few days, but now looks like Environment Canada is at the point of issuing a Special Weather Statement for a Winter Storm thats expected to effect Manitoba Monday into Tuesday. Still some uncertainty on the exact areas that would see the worst, one Env Canada model (see below) has Brandon at 20cm+. For a point of reference, the Christmas storm dropped 26.4cm on Brandon.

Pasting the full weather statement put out by Env Canada below along with link..

------
4:54 PM CST Saturday 04 March 2017
Special weather statement in effect for:

City of Brandon
Mun. of Glenboro-South Cypress incl. Treesbank
Mun. of Norfolk Treherne
Mun. of North Cypress-Langford incl. Neepawa and Carberry
Mun. of North Norfolk incl. MacGregor Sydney and Austin
Mun. of Oakland-Wawanesa incl. Carroll
R.M. of Cornwallis west of Shilo incl. Chater
R.M. of Elton incl. Forrest
R.M. of Victoria incl. Holland and Cypress River
In like a lion...major winter storm expected Monday into Tuesday.

A storm system developing over the western United States is forecast to track across the Dakotas Monday and intensify as it moves into northwest Ontario Monday night into Tuesday. Beginning Monday morning in southeast Saskatchewan, this system is forecast to bring a widespread area of heavy snow from southeast Saskatchewan across western Manitoba and Interlake regions into central and northeast Manitoba. Further southeast, precipitation will likely begin as rain or freezing rain over the Red River valley and southeast Manitoba Monday morning before changing over to snow later in the day. Snowfall totals could range from 5 to 10 cm in southeast Manitoba to 30 cm or more in a large swath from Dauphin to Gillam. In addition, winds will be increasing Monday into Monday night with areas of blowing snow and poor visibility especially over southern Manitoba. Travel conditions will become hazardous.

There is still some uncertainty on the exact track and timing of this system, which will have an impact on precipitation type and overall snowfall amounts. But this will be a high impact storm for many areas, and the public should monitor forecasts and possible watches and warnings as this system develops.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7

------

and a posting that shows areas that could see the biggest impact by Tuesday morning. Obviously a situation to keep an eye on into tomorrow to see what if any changes there might be to whats expected and where:
Snowfall estimates (cm) from EC's GDPS model valid to Tue eve. Gives general idea of where heaviest snow could be from upcoming #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/CR69lo6KwK
— Rob's Obs (@robsobs) March 4, 2017
snowman1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 39

snowman1
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 39

Yes
3/4/2017 at 8:11 PM

let it Snow let it snow let it snow!!
thecdnmole
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 720

thecdnmole
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 720

Biased?
3/4/2017 at 8:30 PM

snowman1 said "let it Snow let it snow let it snow!! "

with a handle of "snowman1"? Lol
cooper
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 890

cooper
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 890

snow?
3/4/2017 at 8:57 PM

Parked my sled and rode my bike today.
Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

ugh!
3/4/2017 at 8:59 PM

I hope people advertise snow shovelling services here again like they did with the Christmas storm.
Trevor B

Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Trevor B
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 8881

Winds
3/4/2017 at 11:06 PM

looks like on Tuesday we could see wind gusts up near 100km/h.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Storm
3/5/2017 at 2:17 PM

Most recent model (see below) has much of the traditional eBrandon usage area a threat for 20cm and up, Brandon pretty darn close to an area that could see 30cm/1 foot if everything holds as currently forecasted.
Here are RDPS 12 and 24 hour snow accumulations in inches by Tuesday morning. Assumes 10:1 ratio. Watch out Riding Mountain Park! #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/1Ye40fZiVd
&mdash: Dave Carlsen (@StormStructure) March 5, 2017
Not usually a good sign when you have this dude's attention :)
For snow removal, lots of fine folks with ads in the Snow Clearing classified category at https://ebrandon.ca/browseads.aspx?cat_id=104
Getty
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1536

Getty
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1536

Plzzz
3/5/2017 at 2:32 PM

Ppl do not go on the roads tomorrow and possibly even Tuesday, unless absolute necessary!! No point in putting yourself or others in danger.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Weather Network
3/5/2017 at 3:18 PM

Weather Network's story that includes another accumulation map. They identify an area from Brandon to the Interlake that could see 30-50(!!)cm. Also mention the near blizzard conditions from Monday evening to Tuesday morning... Like Trevor mentioned, potential for 80-100(!!) k winds, which would make for some pretty serious drifting in areas prone to it:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/winter-weather-for-prairies-as-meteorological-spring-begins/79953/

Prairie Arctic Storm Pediction Centre is expecting warnings to be put out later today:
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Winter Storm Warning
3/5/2017 at 3:54 PM

And theres the warning.... note the part about there still being some uncertainty on the exact track

----------
[i]Warnings
3:38 PM CST Sunday 05 March 2017
Winter storm warning in effect for:

City of Brandon
Mun. of Glenboro-South Cypress incl. Treesbank
Mun. of Norfolk Treherne
Mun. of North Cypress-Langford incl. Neepawa and Carberry
Mun. of North Norfolk incl. MacGregor Sydney and Austin
Mun. of Oakland-Wawanesa incl. Carroll
R.M. of Cornwallis west of Shilo incl. Chater
R.M. of Elton incl. Forrest
R.M. of Victoria incl. Holland and Cypress River
Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

A major winter storm is poised to affect much of Manitoba beginning Monday.

A low pressure system developing in the American Northern Plains will move northward through the Dakotas on Monday then into southern Manitoba Monday evening. Precipitation associated with this system will begin to affect western Manitoba overnight tonight, with freezing rain likely in some areas. Rain or freezing rain will change to snow during the day Monday as the storm begins to tap into much colder air to the north. Conditions will then deteriorate significantly Monday evening as the system intensifies, bringing colder air, heavy snow and very strong northwesterly winds gusting to 80 km/h to western Manitoba. Blizzard conditions are likely Monday evening in this area.

Areas further east, including Winnipeg, the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba will see rain on Monday. The rain will change to snow Monday evening, with snowfall accumulations of 5-10 cm expected in many areas accompanied by very strong westerly winds.

The track of this system remains somewhat uncertain. The public is advised to closely monitor the latest forecasts and warnings as this storm develops.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.[/i]

All Manitoba Warnings/Watches/Statements are at http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb
------------
Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Adam, please
3/5/2017 at 4:53 PM

Can you let us know if the storm will miss us? Seeing as I check here first for all the news?

Fingers crossed for all that snow to miss Brandon!
Oaklakebatman
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 27

Oaklakebatman
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 27

Winter storm watch has ended
3/6/2017 at 5:21 AM

I was just on the government weather site. Looks like the watch has ended. Not as much snow as they first thought.
Not.A.People.Pleaser
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 736

Not.A.People.Pleaser
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 736

...
3/6/2017 at 6:42 AM

Hate to say it, but we are in Manitoba. I wouldn't trust the fact that the warnings/ watches have disappeared from majority of the weather sites. We have been warned for a few days now we would get walloped.

Not trying to be a negative nancy over here but I think most people should still prepare for the unpredictability of our province and weather. If we get missed great! But if we do end up getting hard, I can already see a bunch of people moaning and groaning "well the weather sites said we weren't going to get hit after all, I wasn't prepared."

Like I said, not trying to be a negative nancy, I just think people should still prepare. (Better to be safe than sorry?)
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

System
3/6/2017 at 6:56 AM

Does look like they're expecting the worst of it to now be more Westward with Virden, Souris currently under Env Canada blizzard warnings. From the forecast, rain/freezing rain the main threat (to go with 30 gust 50 winds) during the day in Brandon before shift to snow with the temperature drop by tonight. If you take Environment Canadas forecast for Brandon literally we would see a much more manageable 7-12cm of snow before tomorrow morning with more periods of snow tomorrow. Combine that with still nasty winds of 50 gust 70 and the temperature drop and it doesn't sound like it'll be a pretty night tonight or a pretty day on Tuesday, but not warning level.

Whenever I've looked at an accumulation map for today/tomorrow I’m in my mind super-imposing it over this map of the Assiniboine watershed to try to get a sense for potential effect on spring flood. Hopefully places upstream don't see any more than they have to, though much of the Qu'Appelle and Assiniboine areas are in the warning zone on this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assiniboine_River#/media/File:Assiniboinerivermap.png
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Mon/Tues
3/6/2017 at 7:01 AM

For more of a perspective on how the effected area has shifted, Global has this map out showing expected accumulations by Wednesday. They have Brandon catching quite the break at as little as 5cm:
Huge snowfall numbers for northern Manitoba. Up to 60cm possible by Wednesday AM #MBstorm @globalwinnipeg pic.twitter.com/KgXC4xdIFG
&mdash: Mike Koncan (@MikeKoncan) March 6, 2017

Edited by Adam, 2017-03-06 07:03:31
Adam

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Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

mon/tues
3/6/2017 at 8:07 AM

A thorough post that breaks down who should see rain, freezing rain, snow. Brandon right near the border between the 5-10cm and 10-15cm snow zones when we do eventually see snow later. Sounds like potential for quite the ice accumulation with freezing rain:
https://aweathermoment.com/2017/03/06/major-winter-storm-on-the-doorstep/
Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

Johnbisonbear
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 4183

thanks for the updates guys!
3/6/2017 at 9:44 AM

yikes! Don't like to hear about the freezing rain!
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Pressure
3/6/2017 at 11:05 AM

For anyone that speaks weather geek, I've attached to this thread a graph that shows pressure measurements taken by our system over the past approx year. The low (low lowest) point at the right-hand side of the graph is right now.
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/high-low-pressure
For fun, the rain gauge is also up to pull in measurements during the day of any decent shots of rain we might get.
Edited by Adam, 2017-03-06 11:41:18
Adam

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Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Blizzard
3/6/2017 at 12:17 PM

And Blizzard Warning is back on for Brandon on account of now being expected to receive enough snow:
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7

Actually looks to be a bit of a thunderstorm crossing over into SW MB:
A blizzard in SE #Sask &amp: a thunderstorm crossing into SW #MB within 110 km of each other. #Skstorm #MBstorm #YQR pic.twitter.com/LDlYS8hGX8
&mdash: Tiffany Lizée (@TiffanyGlobal) March 6, 2017

If you believe Accuweather''s hourly, we could see snow as soon as 2pm:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/brandon/r7c/hourly-weather-forecast/48990

Edited by Adam, 2017-03-06 12:19:17
inittowinit
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inittowinit
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Posts: 526

road updates?
3/6/2017 at 12:42 PM

Any first hand accounts on highways?
I have access to the MB road map, but it's nice to get reports from people who have recently been on the roads.
Stay Positive
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 413

Stay Positive
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 413

Yes Current
3/6/2017 at 1:31 PM

The road updates on the Manitoba Government 511 site is always behind. If anybody knows of anyone that has to drive please post info. I have to drive home (Brandon to Neepawa) at 4:30 today so hopefully still just wet then.
curlysister
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 2980

curlysister
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 2980

weather
3/6/2017 at 1:33 PM

Pouring rain and peliting down ice pellets at the same time in Boissevain. Can't imagine the roads are going to be good for very long.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Roads
3/6/2017 at 1:39 PM

Guessing Brandon's about to be quite slippery. Pretty good shot of rain in the South end and with ice pellets mixed in for good measure. Temperature has started dropping, apparently just cold enough for it to form a sheet of ice on the East window of our house, our driveway and sidewalk.

As far as highways, found this which would make sense since Virden was -4 at 1pm vs Brandon's -1:
Highway 1A east of Virden is pure ice. People are hitting the ditch. #mbstorm
— tmariecom (@tmariecom) March 6, 2017
foxtrot11
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2688

foxtrot11
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2688

Now that is just
3/6/2017 at 1:57 PM

Gross weather.....

Oh well, c'est la vie.
Earthgirl
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 10

Earthgirl
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 10

Just came from Brandon
3/6/2017 at 2:20 PM

I just drove from Brandon to Virden and am glad to be done. The temperature dropped from 0 to -5. Halfway home there was a Four Seasons truck and camper in the ditch. The wipers froze on my car. With the wind gusts it's going to get even worse. I would definitely recommend staying off the roads!
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Temps
3/6/2017 at 3:08 PM

Most recent temperature readings...

Steinbach: +5
Brandon: 0
....
Virden: -8
Moosomin: -13
people fly great distances on airplanes to gain less degrees than that
inittowinit
Joined: This month
Posts: 526

inittowinit
Joined: This month
Posts: 526

#1 east
3/6/2017 at 3:22 PM

Just drove #1 east. Not great and raining. Had to pull over to clear ice from wipers. Most of us were driving 80-90km/hr.
don brown
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 4956

don brown
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Posts: 4956

First thunder storm
3/6/2017 at 3:46 PM

Power has been out for 15 minutes and have seen a few bright flashes and rumbles of thunder. Did get a fair bit of freezing rain in the first go round but now into snow.
Adam

Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 15663

Adam
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Posts: 15663

Wind
3/6/2017 at 4:24 PM

Wind really starting to come in from the Northwest now, and our turn for a big temp drop...
Mandy6
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 935

Mandy6
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 935

Bad visibility
3/6/2017 at 4:41 PM

Very poor visibility along #2 east of the Manitoba border to Pipestone. Supposed to be in Brandon today, had to turn around at Pipestone, no visibility.

Edited by Mandy6, 2017-03-06 16:41:51