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Update (Tuesday, 7:06am): see most recent posts below for the progression in forecast

From the weather alert issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada at the link below, the 4.6cm of snow that fell on Brandon on Sunday will soon look like child's play with a winter storm on Tuesday expected to be 15-25cm of snow to Southern MB. Wind gusts of 60-70k are also expected on the day, potentially putting us into blizzard territory (ECCC defines a blizzard as 40k winds reducing visibility to 400m or less due to blowing or falling snow for 4+ hours).  
 
System is expected to start Tuesday morning and run into Tuesday night.  ECCC's forecast for Brandon as of now (early Monday AM) has 10cm falling during the day on Tuesday, further snow on Tuesday night before clearing on Wednesday. 
 
The full text of the Winter Storm Watch can be seen at this link.  The same system is expected to impact all of Southern Manitoba, with further weather alerts for the province at this link. 

The record for snowfall on December 22 going back to 1941 for Brandon is 11.2cm (1974)... something it looks like we'll have a chance at breaking. The 43cm total that was on the ground in 2010 might just be safe barring the unexpected!  
 
Goes without saying that road conditions will not be good if everything goes according to forecast. The link to monitor highway conditions is:  
https://www.manitoba511.ca  
 
You can monitor conditions within the city on the weather page webcam at:  
https://ebrandon.ca/weather_camimage.aspx

Always takes snowmobile folks to remind a guy there’s another way to look at it!  
 
A couple more forecast angles this AM... keeping in mind that being a day out, forecasts can of course only be so precise!  
 
From Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre:  
“THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN SK AND WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND RUNNING GENERALLY WITHIN 100 KM ALONG THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY.  
STILL EXPECT SLIGHT SHIFTING AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES ON SHORE AND MORE REAL DATA COMES IN, BUT MOST MAJOR SITES WILL STILL BE CAUGHT IN THE HEAVY SNOW REGARDLESS. ”  
https://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html  
 
Weather Network’s story includes an accumulation map based on models so far... lots of snow and a mess all around but based on this the worst of the worst could potentially be North of Trans Canada:  

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/intense-storm-to-wallop-parts-of-the-prairies-with-heavy-snow-travel-likely-impacted

Another round of heavy snow will move across the Prairies from west to east starting later today. Here are current total amounts as forecast by our model. There will also be strong winds developing as this system progresses eastward, see next tweet! #abstorm #skstorm #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/t1vmRVFUKD

— Weatherlogics (@weatherlogics) December 21, 2020

Text of what is now a winter storm warning is at:  
https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb7#812358641481819784202012210501ww1171cwwg  
 
Brandon forecast as of now calls for 10-15cm during the day on Tuesday and 5-10cm more on Tuesday night.  
 
As far as when it’ll start in Brandon, the current hourly forecast has it starting to fall for the 6am hour and getting heavier by afternoon...

A couple of more recent models...  
 
Based on one, Brandon might not see the heaviest until late afternoon or into the evening (press the play button to,run the animation):  

Animation of expected #MBstorm from 12Z (6 am) Tuesday to 18Z (noon) Wednesday (HRRR model) Note progression of leading wave of snow through Winnipeg with a short break in the afternoon, then intensifying snow and strong winds Tue evening/night. pic.twitter.com/1TAsDV7vwT

— Rob's Obs (@robsobs) December 22, 2020

 
 
This model looks at potential accumulation at different areas in the province along with severity of blowing snow and wind:  

Here is our latest model output for the storm. You'll see a slight increase in amounts along the heaviest band of snow, but no major changes overall. Also note the heavier upslope snow along the eastern Riding Mountains. #abstorm #skstorm #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/tNcsGajKIb

— Weatherlogics (@weatherlogics) December 22, 2020

Radar link below gives an idea of where Brandon is at in the grand scheme of things right now. Gusty but not much for precip ATM (different story as you go a little further Northeast). Trend you see to the West supposed to eventually progress and give us white stuff (ECCC hourly forecast has 100% chance by the 6pm hour and into the night)  
https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=xfw  

Weather Network's "future radar" gives a guess on future hours.. press play at the link below: https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/map/radar/?lat=49.85021101&lng=-99.96025564
 
Bit of a recent first-hand update below:  

Here's the view toward the approaching system, now visible, as seen from Virden, MB (where I was mayor for a day). Forecasts in @MyRadarWX app have around 5 CM of snow here. Plan is to head north toward the snowseye winter ribbon and follow the system east toward WPG #mbstorm pic.twitter.com/paptRQZI66

— Aaron Jayjack (@aaronjayjack) December 22, 2020

Officially at the airport at Brandon it looks like just 1.4cm yesterday!  
 
Parts of the city do look like they got a few more cm than that (3 or 4 on the ground in my part of town), exaggerated in others by some half impressive drifts... but all around going by the mess on radar to the Northeast it could have been a lot worse.  
 
Now to the bone chilling cold for a couple days (tomorrow morning at wakeup is showing a -40 with windchill on ECCC’s Brandon forecast page)... before a thawing to -6 for Christmas Day!